Six Siblings - Part Three: Close Matches

Something is wrong with the matches at Family Tree DNA. At least with the matches they call "Close Matches," which is what they define as "2nd Cousin - 3rd Cousin."

For the last year or more, I have been getting project administrator notices like this

that appear to be seriously skewed towards the newer tests. That is, one sibling who tested recently seems to be getting lots of these while others who tested earlier are getting many fewer. I discussed this with Janine at RootsTech and she sent me to the Help Desk people. All they have been able to say - and I paraphrase here - is that different siblings match different ways.

But this evades the question.

Just to make it clear, everyone I am discussing here has the same settings for notifications, but that shouldn't even matter. It's not a matter of notifications, it's a matter of the actual matches.

I ran the numbers for three sets of full siblings - my paternal second cousins Marshal and Lee, my maternal second cousins Sam and Beverly and my own siblings, a group of six. I could have done Aunt Betty and Uncle Bob, but neither of them is what I'd call a recent test.

I looked at the matches through the filter shown on the right.

I removed the known cousins who are third cousins or closer from the numbers below, though it really shouldn't matter.

The absolute numbers are large, but this an endogamous population.

Lee's test was received at FTDNA on 2 April 2014. He has 41 close matches.

His brother Marshal's was received nearly two years later on 11 February 2016. He has 89 close matches.

89 vs 41. Hmmm. More than twice as many. Maybe it's an outlier.

Sam's test was received 12 January 2015 and he has 29 close matches.

His sister Beverly's test was received 5 December 2016, also nearly two years later. She has 95 close matches. More than three times as many as Sam. Another outlier?

My brother Dan's test was received in Houston on 7 January 2017. He has 103 close matches.

The dates and numbers for the rest of us:

• Sarajoy 8 July 2014, 31 close matches.
• Amy 9 July 2014, 30 close matches.
• Jean 31 December 2014, 26 close matches.
• Judith 5 February 2015, 27 close matches.
• My own kit was received 30 March 2011 but that was for my Y and MtDNA tests. My first autosomal matches were 13 May 2012. I have 22 close matches.

I'm no statistician but it appears obvious that the recent tests are getting close matches that the earlier ones are not getting. The siblings angle isn't the issue - it's just the way to make the proof argument.

I can't be the only person with results like this. What say the rest of you who have tested full siblings, both recently and say two years ago?

If it's just me, they can try to ignore me.

And if two people do it, in harmony, they can try to ignore both of us.
And if three people do it! ... They may think it's an Organization!
And can you imagine fifty people a day? I said FIFTY people a day.... Friends, They may think it's a MOVEMENT,

How about it, FTDNA? What's wrong and how are you going to fix it?

Previous posts in the Six Siblings series are here and here.